Democracy’s just political capitalism: the only question is where the supply-demand curves will leave the price, and when the deal will be struck…
The following is re-published from our December 22, 2009 post “When will Gibo give up?” on our other weblog epikeia, in view of its connection to current issues. ‘Makes me wonder what would happen on the 8th week after its date.
I estimate about 8 weeks before the administration completely jettisons Teodoro and puts its machinery behind Villar. Gibo has performed dismally in every survey–another one digit showing in the last one, as GMA 7 just reported–; and if his time-to-shine moments amid natural disasters and horrific massacres raised his profile without substantially raising his numbers, then nothing will help him. It’s not his time, any more than it was the more charismatic Escudero’s.
Which leaves the administration one choice: Villar. Moneyed, ideologically vague Manny Villar, who’s already lined up Manny Pacquiao and Michael V in his campaign arsenal [not to mention Bongbong Marcos and Satur Ocampo, in a remarkable display of political flexibility]. It’s only logical. Unlike in the US with its (predominantly) 2-party system, where beat-up Republicans had little choice between Palin-McCain (I mean, I like McCain, but it’s pretty clear who held the base) and going Obamacon, in the Philippines the administration has 2 strong non-Noynoys and a gaggle of lesser lights to choose from .
And if they’re desperate enough to pick Edu Manzano as VP, then they’ll be ready to make deals with Villar and abandon S.S. Gibo. After all, democracy’s just political capitalism: the only question is where the supply-demand curves (which has at least probabilistic value in statu concupiscentiae) will leave the price, and when the deal will be struck.
Okay, so why the somewhat arbitrary 8-week timetable, which places us at about late February? Because the signs of the times are ever clearer, Exhibit “A” being the sudden cessation of attacks on Villar by his fellow Senators [subsequently rendered less relevant by the revival of the C-5 issue in January 2010]; because that’s long enough bleeding of money and people for KAMPI to squirm; because that’s long enough for Estrada to prove the point that he’s still a force to reckon with and also to accept that he’s not as popular as he used to be (assuming he’s seriously running to begin with), leaving a field of two where only one will even smile at the President.
And then we count the days till Gibo says goodbye. By then he’ll have guaranteed himself a Senate seat in 2013 (assuming there’d still be a Senate) and solidified his new nickname, so it’s not a total loss.
So, Dear Reader, who’s your bet?